Derivative Risks in Project Management: How External Changes Transform into Internal Threats and Opportunities
Тип публікації :
Стаття
Дата випуску :
травень 2026 р.
Мова основного тексту :
Англійська
eKNUTSHIR URL :
Журнал :
Scientific journal Transactions of Kremenchuk Mykhailo Ostrohradskyi National University
Випуск :
1 (ч. 1)
ISSN :
1995-0519
Початкова сторінка :
82
Кінцева сторінка :
88
Цитування :
[APA 7] Ziuziun, V. (2026). Derivative risks in project management: How external changes transform into internal threats and opportunities. Transactions of Kremenchuk Mykhailo Ostrohradskyi National University, (1-1), 82–88. https://doi.org/10.32782/1995-0519.2026.1.1.10
[ДСТУ] Ziuziun V. Derivative Risks in Project Management: How External Changes Transform into Internal Threats and Opportunities. Scientific journal Transactions of Kremenchuk Mykhailo Ostrohradskyi National University. 2026. No. 1, pt. 1.. P. 82—88. DOI: 10.32782/1995-0519.2026.1.1.10 (date of access: 18.08.2026).
The purpose of this article is to adapt the concept of derivative risks to project management methodology, to elucidate the mechanism by which external changes transform into internal project threats and opportunities, and to substantiate a model of chain reactions aimed at enhancing project resilience. The relevance of this study stems from the fact that the contemporary project environment has evolved into an open structure subjected to constant pressure from macroeconomic, regulatory, and technological factors. Traditional risk management often overlooks the cascading nature of threats, focusing solely on direct impacts on the «project triangle». The scientific novelty of the work lies in the introduction and justification of the concept of «project derivative risk», defined as a functional dependence on changes in the external environment. For the first time, project dynamics are proposed to be viewed as a system of chain reactions to external impulses. The dual-vector model has been further developed, enabling managers to identify not only destructive consequences but also «windows of opportunity» (derivative opportunities) that arise during periods of turbulence. The research methodology is based on a systems approach and the mathematical formalization of cascading processes. The author proposes a formula for calculating the magnitude of derivative risk that accounts for the intensity of the external trigger, the linkage transmission coefficient, and the level of internal system vulnerability. For the practical implementation of the model, a parameter evaluation scale (ranging from low to high levels of determination) has been developed, enabling a transition from qualitative description to quantitative analysis of the «domino effect». Research results. The article develops and presents a «transformation matrix» that systematizes typical external impulses (changes in regulatory frameworks, market volatility, logistical disruptions) and their internal consequences. It is demonstrated that effective management requires the implementation of a proactive algorithm consisting of four stages: horizon scanning, cascade analysis, response differentiation, and root-cause correction. Particular attention is given to industry specifics: risks in the IT sector are shown to concentrate around the technological context, while in social projects they cluster around stakeholder management. Practical significance. The proposed toolkit enables project managers to anticipate cascading disruptions at the initiation stage and to develop response plans focused on addressing root causes rather than merely their consequences. This approach ensures the project’s strategic stability and adaptability within an aggressive external environment.
Галузі знань та спеціальності :
F Інформаційні технології
Галузі науки і техніки (FOS) :
Інженерія та технології
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