Convergent influences in a system of media communications: theory, measurement, and forecasting

The first one is a lack of a unified theory of media influence that would be able to systematize all achievements of the world's leading scholars and allowed considering all known media impacts as special cases of some universal impact. This lack is crucial for the elaboration of the unified instruments for the quantitative impact measurement.
The second part of the scientific issue is in inaccuracy and obsolescence of the media communication models used by scholars. Ongoing approaches for modeling this system are not sufficiently precise in describing its current state, particularly, they do not entirely reflect the convergence of its parts: the blurring of boundaries between the media, readers, and newsmakers.
The two mentioned parts of the issue have implications in the third one, which is much more practice-oriented. It is a lack of scientific tools for the complex description of the influences in a modern media communication system as well as its measurement and forecasting of its consequences.
Our thesis is devoted to the consequent solving of all three mentioned issues. The resolution of the third one allowed us to develop an instrument for the evidence-based measurement of the power of influence, help to classify the influences by their mechanisms and manifestations, and most importantly use these measurements for the forecasting of the consequences of the media impacts and detection of the most powerful ways of influence. These instruments are very helpful for different professionals. Namely, for the practitioners of business or political communications for better planning and evaluation of the efficacy
of their campaigns. For the professionals of strategic communication to estimate exactly rather than select intuitively the ways to achieve their goals. For the political strategists – for the informed choice of the narratives for the campaigning and the monitoring of the voters` engagement. For the fact-checkers – for the detection of the fakes that are the most convincing for the audience and so require the urgent rebuttal. Professionals in the state of information security reveal the most dangerous communication threats and find ways to react to them.
The structure of our work meets the structure of the referred academic issue.
Namely, in the first chapter, we review scientific perspectives of the media impact studies to identify the general and distinctive features in the subject areas of these studies. We distinguish the primary media impacts whose nature is cognitive and secondary (behavior or psychophysiological) that are results of the primary ones. Building on this we establish our own stratified model of media influences grounded on the notion of media content as a more or less detailed verbal model of some system of reality. When this content is consumed by the recipient, one more model emerges in his mind.
Thereby we get a hierarchy of media influences based on the cognitive complexity of the models appearing in the recipient`s mind. We divide the influences into four levels:
- Level 1. Modeling of the facts.
- Level 2. Modeling of the linkages between facts and attitude towards them.
- Level 3. Modeling of the salience of facts, links, and attitudes to them: so-called agenda setting.
- Level 4. Modeling of the narratives – complicated structures that often have mythic and reasonable parts.
Based on this typology we resolve a problem of the components of misinformation and manipulative influence. The first one leads to distortion of the reality`s model in a media text and therefore, after undergoing personal filters, in the mind of a media consumer
. The second is just an influence that creates the reality`s model or some of its parts in the recipient’s mind unconsciously to him.
We also review studies of communication efficiency which are possible only within quantitative models. Quantitative measurement of the impact divides into two categories: measurement of specific media effects which is often possible due to metrics constituted by the theories of these effects, and the metrics of the communication efficacy. We come to the conclusion that one universal metric should be developed that would make it possible to assess audience engagement.
In the second chapter, we describe a modern system of media communications that serves an environment for impacts. We suggest a poly-cycle model of social communications that best shows the current state of the information exchange in the media communication system when ordinary social media users often have communication efficacy commensurate to the efficacy of traditional media. Often it blurs borders between the subjects and objects of impact. Using this systematic approach to outline the world`s media communication system in its current state we get a functional model of this system.
Taking a detailed look at the functioning of this model we describe the patterns of the influences on journalists and social media users in the context of blurring the boundaries between them, and also the convergence of the notions of «media logic» and «social media logic». In doing so, we determine the nature of the links between the components of the media communication system. We also determine the structure of information flows in this system, i.e., describe the system operation in dynamics, show its results, and prove the serial structure of the information consumption in it.
At the end of the second chapter, we focus on the features of the Ukrainian sub-system within the whole examined system, and its external linkage. We show the patterns of its operation using specific examples of public discussions in this subsystem. We are also focused on the usage of the received knowledge for the analysis of Ukrainian information system during the Russian hybrid aggression.
In the third chapter, operating the unified influence theory and detailed description of the environment of the influence we come to modeling of the processes of the influence in this environment.
And therefore to the formulation of quantitative tools for converged impact evaluation.
It is useful to evaluate the impact based on the study of the reactions of media publication consumers who spread it or interact with it in another way. The dynamics of information dissemination in the modern media communication system depend on the proportion of two models: horizontal (from one user to another) and vertical (from influential centers with numerous links to common users). The activity of horizontal dissemination defines the message`s virality. So, the number of shares doesn`t determine the virality yet, because this number could be reached mainly due to the vertical spreading.
In the study of the mechanisms of such influence, we used the dataset gathered by the «Media intelligence» system. Using this data we show that in general, the number of media publication interactions rises under the power law. The power indicator in a formula of the dynamics of the interaction number is an important indicator that describes the power of influence: we call it interactive potential. It expresses an average number of people that interact with the publication as a consequence of one earlier interaction. We prove that it is proportional to the power of influence. The interactive potential is identical in substance to the epidemiological indicator: the basic reproduction number.
We show that the measurement of the interactive potential allows forecasting the likelihood of users` actions outside the social media both online (buying goods, singing petitions, information search, joining online communities, etc.) and offline (participation in protests, elections, offline shopping). We show that a combination of high interactive potential values and determination of goal-rational interactions with it, which goal is outside the social media space, is a good tool to forecast mass activities focused on the achievement of this goal.
Furthermore, we show that our method allows for the study of the power of different narrative structures of information flow and doing so, determination of the most mobilizing ones. We show how the influence of different nature correlates with different types of reactions and with the likelihood of different secondary impacts. We conclude that the best incentive to the actions outside the social media space is the narratives that affect not only emotions but also trigger rational conscious calls to some goals stipulated by these narratives.
Thereby, in our Doctoral thesis, we have gotten several new characteristics of influences in a media communication system. These parameters can be used jointly. They are the most informative when these impacts lead to the shares of media publications in a social media space. These characteristics are the level of the primary influence that describes the complexity of cognitive structures; interactive potential which defines the power of impact; misinformative and manipulative nature of impact; the way of the impact manifestation in social media; external narrative structures associated with the influence.

Захарченко А. П. Конверговані впливи в системі медіакомунікацій: теорія, вимірювання та прогнозування : дис. … д-ра наук із соціальних комунікацій : 27.00.01 Теорія та історія соціальних комунікацій / Розпутна Марія Василівна. – Київ, 2023. – 447 с.