Probabilistic models of water resources management on urbanized areas

Kizilova, N. M.; Rychak, N. L.

doi:10.17721/1812-5409.2020/4.3

Probabilistic models of water resources management on urbanized areas

Тип публікації :

Стаття

Дата випуску :

2020

Автор(и) :

Kizilova, N. M.

Rychak, N. L.

Мова основного тексту :

Англійська

eKNUTSHIR URL :

https://ir.library.knu.ua/handle/15071834/26174

DOI :

10.17721/1812-5409.2020/4.3

Журнал :

Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Physics and Mathematics

Випуск :

4

ISSN :

1812-5409

Початкова сторінка :

22

Кінцева сторінка :

27

Цитування :

[APA 7] Kizilova, N. M., & Rychak, N. L. (2020). Probabilistic models of water resources management on urbanized areas. Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Physics and Mathematics, (4), 22–27. https://doi.org/10.17721/1812-5409.2020/4.3

[ДСТУ] Kizilova N. M., Rychak N. L. Probabilistic models of water resources management on urbanized areas. Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Physics and Mathematics. 2020. no. 4. P. 22—27. DOI: 10.17721/1812-5409.2020/4.3 (date of access: 18.07.2026).

Gradual global climate change poses new challenges to the mathematical sciences, which are related to forecasting of meteorological conditions, preparing the infrastructure for possible rains, storms, droughts, and other climatic disasters. One of the most common approaches is synthetic regression-probability models, which use the spatio-temporal probability density functions of precipitation level. This approach is applied to the statistics of precipitation in the Kharkiv region, which shows the tendency to a gradual increase in air temperature, high indices of basic water stress, indices of drought and riverside flood threats. Open data on temperature distributions and precipitation were processed using various probability statistics. It is shown that the lognormal distribution most accurately describes the measurement data and allows making more accurate prognoses. Estimates of drought and flood probabilities in Kharkiv region under different scenarios of climate change dynamics have been carried out. The results of the study can be used for management of water resources on urban territories at global climate warming.
Pages of the article in the issue: 22 - 27
Language of the article: Ukrainian

Ключові слова :

water quality global climate change mathematical modeling probabilistic models якість води глобальні зміни клімату математичне моделювання імовірнісні моделі

Файл(и) :

Формат :

Adobe PDF

Розмір :

727.35 KB

Контрольна сума :

(MD5):699cb8f7004a046cc04244331e01ccd3

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