Perception of the future as a factor of ukrainian youth’s migratory intentions during the war conflict

Kovalenko, A. B., Hryshchuk, E. Y., & Baranauskiene, І. (2021). Perception of the future as a factor of ukrainian youth’s migratory intentions during the war conflict. Ukrainian psychological journal, (1), 107-126. https://doi.org/10.17721/upj.2021.1(15).6

The article studies the ideas about one’s own future and the future of the country as a factor of Ukrainian youth’s migratory intentions. The number of migrants is constantly increasing year by year, and, given the difficult situation in Ukraine, a trend toward decrease is not expected. Since an image of the future is closely related to the goal-setting, expectations, desires, a person’s ideas about the past and the future, it is reflected in decisions taken by each individual, which are linked with the formation of migratory intentions in our study. The study was carried out with the following methods: associative experiment, bipolar semantic differential and surveys. The sample included three groups: group 1 - migrants living outside Ukraine; group 2 - people planning to leave Ukraine within a year; group 3 - those who planned to stay in Ukraine. The results of the associative experiment showed that one’s own future, on the one hand, was perceived as happy, in family, close to nature, with development and recreation, prosperous, successful, stable, active, promising; on the other hand, it was described as unknown, uncontrolled, alarming. The future of Ukraine, on the one hand, was perceived as hopeless, full of obstacles, trials and anxieties, fears associated with the continued war, poverty and misfortune; on the other, it was described as cohesive, happy, pure, changed, peaceful, united, full of power and hopes for the better life, independent, rich, prosperous and generally optimistic. The results obtained by the method of the semantic differential were analysed to form the factor structure; the image of “My future” consisted of seven factors: “Optimism”, “Dynamics”, “Prosperity”, “Social Norms”, “Stability”, “Life in Nature”, “Predictability". The factor structure of the image of “The future of Ukraine” consisted of four factors: “Successful Country”, “United People”, “Light-heartedness”, “Desired Topical Changes”. Differences between groups as for the perception of their own future were found for the scales: “dependent - independent”, “simple - complex”, “traditional - unusual”, “confident - uncertain”, “specific - abstract”, “healthy - morbid”; as for the perception of the future of Ukraine, differences were determined for the scales: “happy - unhappy”, “full of power - tired”, “rapid - gradual”," “free - dependent”, “promising - hopeless”, “near - distant”, “in development - stagnating”, “integrated - separated”. As for compared ranking in the perception of the images “My future” and “The future of Ukraine”, there were no statistically significant differences between the groups, but there were differences as tendencies for such factors as “Dynamics”, “Stability”, “Life in Nature”, “Predictability”; “Successful country”, “People in cohesion”. The future of Ukraine was perceived by young people with taking into account several aspects: economic development, prospects, wealth, strength; social aspect (including people, their cohesion and ability to act together); emotional aspect (giving preference to serenity and easiness, peace and stability, which together created a sense of security); time aspect that aimed at the near future and desired changes. The overall picture was also depicted in the positive characteristics. One’s own future was perceives more distinctive than the future of Ukraine, which was simplified. Some characteristics were similar; both images had: optimistic successful vision, the desire for confidence and stability. However, the perception of one’s own future included the factor of dynamics, but the factor of stability was absent, which showed understanding by the respondents the need for development; and there was not any factor of changes in the near future, rather the distant future was perceived, for example, family. As for the future of Ukraine, the time factor could be provoked by the current military conflict.