Прогнозування гідроекологічного стану річки Тетерів з використанням модифікованої моделі Стрітера-Фелпса

Циганенко-Дзюбенко, І.Ю., Кірейцева, Г.В., & Скиба, Г.В. (2025). Прогнозування гідроекологічного стану річки Тетерів з використанням модифікованої моделі Стрітера-Фелпса. Гідрологія, гідрохімія і гідроекологія, 1(75), 53-64. https://doi.org/10.17721/2306-5680.2025.1.6

An automated system for forecasting the hydroecological status of the Teteriv River has been developed and verified based on integral modification of the Streeter-Phelps model, accounting for the specificity of urbanized river systems. The study was conducted on a 12.5 km section of the Teteriv River within Zhytomyr city using retrospective hydrochemical monitoring data from 2019-2023. The software module, implemented in Jupyter Notebook environment using Python, provides automated input data processing, calculation of reaeration and organic matter degradation coefficients, and construction of predictive models for biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen concentration dynamics. The modified model incorporates enhanced algorithms for coefficient determination, including Owens-Gibbs and O'Connor-Dobbins formulations for reaeration coefficient calculation, with exponential regression analysis for degradation parameter estimation. Advanced data preprocessing protocols ensure temporal consistency and spatial correlation analysis across monitoring stations. The system integrates hydrological characteristics from SWAT modeling platform, accounting for surface runoff patterns, groundwater contributions, and water balance components specific to urbanized watersheds. Model verification confirmed high forecasting accuracy with determination coefficient R²=0.89 for BOD₅ and root mean square deviation ±0.2 mg/l for dissolved oxygen. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated robust performance across varying flow conditions and seasonal temperature fluctuations. Cross-validation using independent datasets confirmed model stability with minimal overfitting. Prognostic scenarios until 2045 demonstrate potential improvement in river ecological status: dissolved oxygen concentration increase from 9.0 to 11.0 mg/l and BOD₅ reduction from 4.4 to 3.2 mg O₂/l, indicating intensification of self-purification processes and ecological rehabilitation of the aquatic ecosystem under urbanized landscape conditions. The automated system provides decision-support capabilities for environmental management, enabling real-time assessment and preventive intervention strategies for urban river restoration programs.